US inflation hit 3.7% in September

Gold opened on Monday at $4,185.

That is about $19 above Friday's close. Gold finished last week 0.69% lower, after September's inflation figures pushed it to its low on Wednesday and a rally in Treasuries brought most of it back on Thursday. Early this morning it was near $4,181.

Last week

Gold touched its high of the week, $4,217, on Monday, while the US bond market was shut for Columbus Day. On Wednesday, September's consumer prices came in 3.7% higher than a year earlier, above the 3.6% consensus, and gasoline, up 9.1% on the month, made up more than half of the monthly rise. By Kitco's reading the chance of an October hike went from roughly 20% to nearly 40%, and gold fell to $4,073, its low of the week.

Producer prices on Thursday were hotter still, up 6.3% on the year, but worries about heavily indebted AI companies sent money into Treasuries, and the 10-year yield had its biggest one-day fall since August 2025. Gold rose 1.59%. That night in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said "I don't prejudge meetings," and by Friday futures gave about an 83% chance that the Fed holds in October. The 10-year closed the week at 5.09%, down from 5.24%, and gold closed Friday at $4,165.50.

Week 12 to 16 Oct

−0.69%

Close Fri 16 Oct

$4,166

Low Wed 14 Oct

$4,073.44

High Mon 12 Oct

$4,217.47

One number that sat behind the week: 304 tonnes. That is how much gold Chinese ETFs held at the end of September, a month-end record, according to the World Gold Council. In the same quarter, China's wholesale gold demand was 44% below its ten-year average, and the WGC names weak jewellery buying as the main drag.

Week ahead

A light week for US data, and the last full week before the Fed meets. Fed officials are in their quiet period, so there are no Fed speeches before the decision.

• Mon 19 OctChina's economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter, in figures out this morning in Beijing, above the 4.4% forecast
• Tue 20 OctHousing starts and building permits for September, 8:30 ET
• Wed 21 OctUK inflation for September, 2:00 a.m. ET
• Thu 22 OctWeekly jobless claims, 8:30 ET. Newmont reports its third-quarter results after the close
• Fri 23 OctS&P Global's flash PMIs for October, 9:45 ET, and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading, 10:00 ET
• Wed 28 OctNext week: the Fed's decision, 2:00 ET. Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation follow on Thursday

What is still running underneath all of it:

October looks like a pause, December still a hike. CME FedWatch puts an 83.9% chance on no change this month, up from 49% a month ago, and a 91.8% chance on a hike in December.

Oil is near $110. Brent settled at $109.86 on Friday, up 4.9% on the week, as attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz picked up: the UK's maritime agency counted at least 12 in the week to 16 October, and oil flows through the strait ran at about 68% of their pre-war level. The Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday found that "higher oil prices permeated all District reports."

The analysts are split. In Kitco's weekly survey, 4 of 12 Wall Street analysts expect gold higher this week, 2 expect it lower and 6 expect it to go sideways. StoneX's Daniel Pavilonis is watching the 10-year: "If rates can break below 5% on the 10-year, I think that could be pretty positive for gold."

From Goldfish

On Friday, the record quarter for gold ETFs, which came while the price fell.

Gold ETFs just had their biggest quarter on record.

Investors put $10B into gold ETFs in September, a month when gold fell 8.5%, taking Q3 inflows to a record $31B.

Inflation, high energy prices, and worries about stock valuations kept buyers coming in even as prices fell.

More investors are getting their gold exposure without holding it themselves.

Read on X

On Wednesday, how gold did in the S&P 500's worst quarters.

Stocks took a beating in 20 of the S&P 500's worst quarters since 1967.

Gold outperformed in 15 of them.

That's one reason gold remains important to big investors and central banks.

Read on X

One last thing

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