The Fed decides on Wednesday

Gold opened on Monday at $3,997.

That is about where it closed on Friday, after a week in which gold lost 4.07% and finished below $4,000. Early this morning it was back near $4,014.

Last week

Gold touched its high of the week, $4,191, early on Monday, then slipped for two days as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed. On Tuesday, September's housing starts came in 5.2% below August's, and Brent rose to nearly $112 before reports that mediators were looking for a way to restart US-Iran talks pulled it back.

Thursday did most of the damage. Gold fell 2.82% as tension around the Strait of Hormuz picked up again, and falling yields didn't stop it. The 10-year closed at 4.96%, the break below 5% that StoneX's Daniel Pavilonis had said "could be pretty positive for gold" in last week's survey. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000, under the 200,000 forecast. Gold touched $3,976 on Friday and closed the week at $3,995.80, while Brent settled at $116.72, its highest settlement since 29 April.

Week 19 to 23 Oct

−4.07%

Close Fri 23 Oct

$3,996

Low Fri 23 Oct

$3,975.64

High Mon 19 Oct

$4,190.57

One number that sat behind the week: $1,454. That was Newmont's all-in sustaining cost per ounce of gold in the third quarter, in results out on Thursday. It sold its gold for an average of $4,317 an ounce, and its adjusted net income was a record for a third quarter.

Week ahead

Four central banks decide in three days, the Fed on Wednesday among them, and the US gets its first estimate of third-quarter growth.

• Tue 27 OctThe Fed's two-day meeting begins. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October is also out
• Wed 28 OctThe Bank of Canada, 9:45 ET. The Fed's decision, 2:00 ET, then Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 ET. Microsoft reports after the close
• Thu 29 OctThird-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation, with weekly jobless claims, all at 8:30 ET. The ECB decides the same day, and Amazon reports after the close
• Fri 30 OctThe Bank of Japan's decision, in Asian hours, which is Thursday night in New York
• Tue 3 NovNext week: the US midterm elections

What is still running underneath all of it:

A hold is priced in. December is less certain. CME FedWatch puts a 90.6% chance on no change on Wednesday. The chance of a hike by December is 79.7%, down from 92.6% a month ago.

Oil is at its highest since April. Brent rose for a third week in a row, and the weekend brought no calm: on Sunday, Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi missiles and drones, including a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh.

Wall Street leans lower, Main Street higher. In Kitco's weekly survey, 7 of 17 Wall Street analysts expect gold lower this week, 4 expect it higher and 6 sideways, while 42% of the 161 Main Street voters expect it higher. Walsh Trading's Sean Lusk sees Iran and oil as the weight: "It's just an impediment to any rally in gold."

From Goldfish

On Wednesday, how fast gold is moving into tokens.

More gold is finding its way onchain.

Over the past year, ounces held in major gold tokens grew 115%, while gold prices rose 9.2%.

And you don't need to buy a whole gold bar to own a piece of one.

Buyers putting more gold on-chain faster than the price alone would explain.

Read on X

On Monday, why new gold takes so long to reach the market.

The world has about 61,000 tonnes of gold reserves left in the ground, and major new discoveries are getting scarce.

Supply can't grow fast, so more demand means a higher price for the gold that already exists.

$GGBR is gold exposure on day one, not year fifteen.

Read on X

One last thing

More gold is moving on-chain.

On Friday we published a longer read on it. Wallets holding gold tokens went from about 153,000 at the start of the year to about 338,000 by 22 October, and gold leads every other tokenized commodity by a wide margin. The piece ends on where $GGBR fits in that shift.

Read the article

That's the week. The next briefing lands on Monday.